Forecasting the prevalence of overweight and obesity in India to 2040
In India, the expanding predominance of overweight and obesity can be observed in recent years. The relationship between overweight and obesity with many non-communicable diseases is known and the prediction the future prevalence can aid in notifying policy in a country where one-sixth of the global population resides. Shammi Luhar and colleagues hence conducted a research titled “Forecasting the prevalence of overweight and obesity in India to 2040” and the summary has been given below:
Objective
To predict the prevalence of obesity in India till date to 2040.
Methods
A system of multi-state life tables was used to predict the generality of corpulence among Indians on the basis of these factors: age range of 20-69, gender and metropolitan/rural residence. Data was collected from several sources such as the National Family and Health Survey 3 & 4 and the Study on global AGEing and adult health, wave 0 and 1.
Findings
In general, it is anticipated that the pervasiveness of overweight will increase roughly twofold among Indians in the age range of 20-69 years between the years 2010-2040 while the incidence of obesity shall increase threefold over the same time period. Substantial rise in prevalence would be seen in those residing in rural areas and those aged older.
Limitations
A number of limitations were seen in the forecasting models. The prevalence of new-cohorts aged 20-24 year old were determined outside of the model. A reducing rate to rise in prevalence was applied so as to avoid exaggeration of prevalence to unrealistic levels. Global and standard measures of BMI were used which portrayed some controversy. A few scientists advocate for utilizing lower BMI thresholds for South Asians due to a higher level of muscle to fat ratio among South Asians contrasted with Caucasians of similar BMI. Thirdly, the presumption of no migration might slightly render bias to the study. Lastly, the ever dynamic socioeconomic patterning of overweight and obesity should have been inclusion in the forecasts.
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